In 1968, Ehrlich published The Population Bomb, which argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of population growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources. Ehrlich lost the bet, as all five commodities that were bet on declined in price from 1980 through 1990, the wager period. The bet was formalized on September 29, 1980, with September 29, 1990, as the payoff date. Ehrlich chose copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Simon challenged Ehrlich to choose any raw material he wanted and a date more than a year away, and he would wager on the inflation-adjusted prices decreasing as opposed to increasing. on my belief that the cost of non-government-controlled raw materials (including grain and oil) will not rise in the long run.' In response to Ehrlich's published claim that 'If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000' Simon offered to take that bet, or, more realistically, 'to stake US$10,000. The widely-followed contest originated in the pages of Social Science Quarterly, where Simon challenged Ehrlich to put his money where his mouth was. Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990.

The Simon–Ehrlich wager was a 1980 scientific wager between business professor Julian L.

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